Yavapai County Weather Tracks at High Resolution

Yavapai County High-Resolution, Local Weather Tracks
(In case you're wondering why everyone seemed to get rain except you...)

Top Row: Total 24-hour total precipitation for today and tomorrow.
Also, Min/Max temperature: Today and Tomorrow

Lower Rows: Time-Stamped, Adjustable MOVIES (for today and tomorrow)

Precipitation	Relative Humidity	Temperature
Total Sunlight	Wind Speed	Max Wind Gust
RADAR	Total Cloud	HAIL and SNOWFALL

Use video controls to view specific times on videos.
The videos each cover 2 days. (Videos have a green border)
SEE YESTERDAY's WEATHER FORECAST
Please send additional data requests to: wm[at]yavapaiweathertracks.org

YAVAPAIWEATHERTRACKS.ORG
These are high-resolution numerical weather prediction models of the next two days, using inputs from the NOAA North American Mesoscale Forecast Data, starting at midnight local time each day; these change on a day-to-day basis because, well, weather is often chaotic. These are at 4 times the resolution of US National Forecasts, and more accurately resolve local effects of Yavapai County's terrain. Same-day forecasts are the most likely to be accurate, but, of course, weather forecasting is never guaranteed.

On hot days, forecast isolated pockets of rain often do not reach the ground.

(To start all the videos over at the same time, just refresh the page)
See how forecasts change day-to-day - look at Yesterday's Forecast

Wind-Gust and Squall Line 2022-10-03

Modeling Details: These are daily, 2-day forecasts, using the current NCAR/NCEP WRF weather model: a same-day forecast and a next-day forecast, at 1.4 kilometer resolution. Forecasts are run at 3AM local time each morning, and are available by 5AM. These forecasts are done at high resolution (1.4 km) in order to resolve the local mountainous terrain and thereby more accurately predict how it affects the development of localized weather, such as convective instability and wind gust. The input data to our models are from the National Weather Service (NWS) "North American Mesoscale" (NAM) forecast dataset at 12 kilometer native resolution (which we downscale in our forecasts to 1.4 kilometer resolution). We recently switched to (mostly) the WRF "HI-RES" parameterization scheme (suite): Thompson 2-moment, 6-class scheme [2008] (Microphysics); Multi-scale Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme [2017]; Yonsei University boundary-layer scheme; the NOAA Land Surface Model; the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (both LW and SW radiation); with the WRF Hybrid Vertical Coordinate grid system.

Rather than providing coarse predictions tied to specific locations, this site provides highly-detailed 2-dimensional data over the entire region, at a temporal resolution of 10 minutes, in the form of data movies. The data in the movies can be "surfed" for specific times-of-day and locations by using the slider which appears when the mouse cursor is placed over the movie. Daily 2:30AM and 2:30PM snapshot maps of surface air temperature as well as daily total precipitation snapshots are also provided at the top of the page, for quick reference. When using these forecasts, be aware that these are best-estimates made from NAM data acquired shortly after midnight local time, and are therefore subject to change, especially the predictions for the second-day weather. As with all weather forecasts, the downside of very-high-resolution data is that it can accrue error from small changes which may occur after the daily NWS NAM forecast data is downloaded to run our high-resolution forecasts.